The real problem of a second quarter GDP dip below the seven percent growth mark is not the number itself but the dip in confidence that follows this new low in our economic fundamentals. The capital goods and manufacturing industry chiefs have cautioned of six percent being a conceivable next low. The ongoing problems in agriculture and infrastructure and the repeated complaints of a paralysis in the Government decision making machinery do not bode well for a better 2012 either.
At the recent Quality summit of the CII in Bengaluru, some interesting points were made which could help the economy to get out of its current morass. First the need to look beyond current markets with their obvious limitations and think opportunity share, to use one of the favourite phrases of late Guru CK Prahlad. This would mean the willingness to reach out to new segments through aggressive use of social media, mobility and wireless solutions and start an aggressive search for export markets as the motor cycle industry has done so admirably in recent years. Second the ability and willingness to take entrepreneurial risks without the obsessive fear of failure that so often clouds our ability to take a leap of faith. In fact, to take a leaf out of Silicon Valley in the US, not only should startups be encouraged to fail if the business model proves to be flawed but they should be enabled to fail fast to avoid more good money to be thrown after bad.. And finally the need for all economists, bureaucrats, politicians and corporate chiefs to focus on growth and innovation as the mantras for getting the magic eight percent number back into our GDP aspirations.
What does this mean for the IT sector in our country even as the only encouraging signs are the better, albeit marginally better growth the services sector has shown in the same period and NASSCOM’s confidence that the sixteen to eighteen percent growth target for the industry is not in danger of being lowered? The mantras for continuing success are not very different from that for revival in the more brick and mortar segments of the economy. With the traditional bastions, USA and UK showing signs of a prolonged demand slowdown, the search for new markets and new opportunities like healthcare in the traditional markets will have to be accelerated. And the sub-sector which can both sustain and accelerate the growth of the industry will undoubtedly be the products and internet commerce companies. The breakaway success of “Make my Trip” which enjoyed a market capitalization on its global listing that would put much larger services firms in the shade have shown that the global markets are ready to accept the “Made in India” tag in addition to their traditional comfort of being serviced from India. And if the mood of the hundreds of firms and the applause of the venture capital community at the NASSCOM Products Conclave recently is any barometer, these young entrepreneurs who are champing at the bit and waiting for their call to a global destiny will write many future scripts for this industry as it powers its way to a three hundred billion dollar destiny.
Where the twain and can must meet if the entire country is to see an era of inclusive growth return in the next few quarters is a willingness on the part of all players in the eco-system to be collaborative. While the need is there for Government to collaborate with Civil Society champions to get a reasonable Lok Pal Bill passed and the Ruling Party to collaborate with the opposition and naysayers within its coalition to enable the Retail FDI vision to become a reality, an even greater need is that of improving the information intensity and IT penetration in corporate business processes to make them globally competitive. There are examples galore of how Indian IT firms have enabled retailers to explore multi-channel purchasing and Facebook participation of young buyers and how many global manufacturers have optimized their infrastructure and applications management and taken the stepping stones to the cloud. The Manufacturing Retail and Distribution sector in India has a long way to go particularly at the medium to small side of the business, to convert CAPEX to OPEX and embrace new ideas, new ways of reaching out to the customer community and new opportunities for creating new demographic and geography markets. It would be a great idea for CII or NASSCOM to organize a showcase of ideas on a national scale at the earliest. And while the same can be said for technology in skills development, and e-Government, the low hanging fruit of a corporate to corporate partnership may be the first opportunity to be explored.
The signs of a slowdown are all around us, with the US and Europe stuck in their own political and economic quicksands, China slowing perceptible and now India hitting the brakes on its own growth. We have no dearth of ideas in our country, now is the time to demonstrate robust implementation and a will to succeed!
Dr. Ganesh Natarajan is CEO of Zensar Technologies Ltd and Co-Chair of the National Knowledge Council of CII.
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